February 2012 Newsletter: Overconfidence Bias
Did you predict the outcome of the Superbowl? When you have a strong opinion, how confident are you that you have your facts right? What about the other party in the conversation. Do they feel the same way? Before we introduce the topic of this month’s article, we’d like to ask you to take a one question survey: The question is one asked every year by Terrance Odean of his MBA students at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. With remarkable consistency, his students generally rank themselves as 80% above average, 20% average and almost no one ranking...
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